Solar, wind, and storage catching up to slow-moving nuclear power

The coalition agreement presented in early 2026 leaves no room for doubt: the government, with support from the Climate Fund, intends to press ahead with the construction of at least four new nuclear power plants. These could be conventional reactors or small modular reactors (SMRs). The hope is that these plants will provide a stable base load of CO2-free electricity by 2035 or 2040.

But will we still need that electricity by then? The reality of the energy market is already catching up with these plans. While the preparation and construction of a nuclear power plant take decades in practice and are subject to structural delays, solar energy, wind energy, and battery storage are growing at an exponential rate. By the time a new reactor delivers its first electricity, our energy system must already be fully green and flexible. If that does not happen, the Netherlands will face a significant problem in meeting its climate goals by that time. Nuclear energy therefore risks becoming an exorbitantly expensive, unnecessary solution to a problem that we should have already solved by then.

The unstoppable, real-time rise of solar and wind

The figures on renewable energy generation show just how quickly the energy transition is progressing. Even in a year with somewhat less spectacular growth, such as 2025, the Netherlands still installed 1,447 megawatts peak (over 1.4 GWp) of solar panels, according to recent CBS figures. This brought the total installed solar panel capacity in our country to 29.4 GWp. On a sunny day, all the panels installed last year alone produce three times the capacity of the Borssele nuclear power plant.

We are also seeing progress in wind energy, despite temporary growing pains. According to the RVO’s Onshore Wind Monitor 2025, the Netherlands now has 7,054 megawatts of operational onshore capacity, spread across some 2,547 wind turbines. Although net onshore growth in 2025 remained historically low at just 96 megawatts due to grid congestion and permitting uncertainty, 1,723 megawatts of new projects are already planned for the coming years. At the same time, offshore wind is steadily growing toward the goal of 21 gigawatts around 2030.

These enormous volumes of variable electricity make a rigid, constant “base load” from nuclear power increasingly illogical. International agencies systematically underestimate the speed of this transition. By the time a nuclear reactor becomes operational, the Netherlands will already be producing a massive surplus of electricity on sunny and windy days. A new nuclear power plant will then simply no longer be able to sell its expensive electricity profitably on the market, because market prices during peak hours often drop to zero or below.

Spanish blueprint for the transition

The idea that an electricity grid can function excellently based on renewable sources is no longer a distant dream. Spain demonstrates how quickly a country can transform its energy system once political obstacles, such as the infamous solar tax, have been removed. By 2024, Spain had already installed over 38 gigawatts of solar power. The definitive proof of this transition came in April of that year: the entire Spanish power grid ran on 100 percent renewable energy for an entire day. Not a single gram of gas, coal, or nuclear backup was needed to power Madrid and Barcelona. Spain now aims for 74 percent renewable electricity by 2030. This demonstrates that political will and scaling up can render fossil fuel and nuclear power plants obsolete faster than traditional models predicted.

The missing link: storage in action

Energy storage is crucial to balancing the fluctuations of solar and wind power. Globally, battery prices are falling rapidly, and the impact of this on the grid is already becoming visible. Real-world data shows how storage is taking over the role of traditional power plants. In Australia, data from the National Electricity Market (NEM) shows that battery discharge during peak times is now directly taking over the role of gas-fired peaking plants. This is “peak shaving” in real time.

Although the Netherlands currently lags behind countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom in the area of large-scale battery farms, the technological trend is undeniable. We have previously discussed the underlying causes of this Dutch lag here.

Yet, despite these barriers, the market is beginning to shift. In January 2026, the association of grid operators EDSN recorded a record number of 2,547 new battery installations in the Netherlands. Since the summer of 2025, an average of about 2,200 battery registrations have been added each month. Once the transmission tariff structures become fairer, the Dutch battery market is expected to accelerate further, making a flexible grid without nuclear power a reality even sooner.

The financial risk of nuclear optimism

Besides the time factor, money is the biggest stumbling block for nuclear projects. Nuclear energy is and remains the most expensive method of generating electricity. As economist Mathijs Bouman recently noted on Bluesky:"Optimism has always been the hallmark of the nuclear lobby. The history of nuclear energy is one of high expectations and deep disappointment.”The reality is that power plants aren’t built on optimism and enthusiasm alone.

According to analyses, the cost of a megawatt-hour of nuclear power ranges from $112 to $189, while solar energy ($36 to $44) and onshore wind energy ($29 to $56) cost a fraction of that. Moreover, the construction of new reactors almost always runs billions of euros over budget and takes much longer than planned—think of the European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR) in Flamanville, France. Governments must provide enormous sums of public money or guarantees to finance projects. Money that can no longer be spent on renewable, faster alternatives. By the time a Dutch power plant is completed around 2040, it simply cannot compete economically with dirt-cheap wind and solar power. Taxpayers then risk having to foot the bill for the structural losses.

Policy in Motion

Fortunately, we are also seeing the necessary shifts toward flexibility in policy. The government is working on a comprehensive policy agenda for energy storage, and starting in 2027, new European rules under the Electricity Regulation will mandate more capacity for flexible power. Concrete steps are being taken to improve the business case for batteries, including by giving them a role in the national capacity mechanism. Subsidies such as the SDE++ are also being adjusted; for example, the limit for e-boilers is being lowered from 3 to 2 megawatts to stimulate electrification.

Meanwhile, the market is already circumventing high grid costs by opting for creative solutions, such as installing batteries “behind the meter” at existing wind and solar farms. This avoids high transmission costs and enables operators to store excess electricity directly and sell it at favorable times.

A look ahead

The energy transition does not follow a linear path, but rather an exponential curve. The political fixation on nuclear energy distracts from the solutions that are already available and scalable today. Instead of setting aside billions for nuclear projects that will not supply power for at least fifteen years, the priority must be on the urgent reinforcement of the electricity grid, smart software, and large-scale battery storage.

Renewable sources also offer us immediate strategic independence, without the geopolitical risks associated with uranium imports or the long-term legacy of nuclear waste. If the Netherlands quickly reforms its grid tariffs and implements its policy agenda, it can rapidly catch up in the battery sector. The market is ready. The conclusion is clear: solar, wind, and batteries won’t wait for the slow, costly construction of a nuclear power plant. By the time the first reactor is ready to go online, the energy transition will have long since been completed.