Trump Is losing ground at home, but could still surprise Europe
Midterms: less power in Washington, more risks for Europe?
Published on November 5, 2026
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The November 2026 U.S. midterm elections have changed the political landscape in Washington. The Democrats have taken control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. This will make it more difficult for Donald Trump to push through his domestic agenda. But on the world stage, he is not yet finished. A president who is losing influence at home may turn to foreign policy to secure his political legacy.
A president’s waning power
An American president can exert a great deal of influence during his term in office, but that power is not unlimited. Especially when his party loses its majority in Congress, it becomes more difficult to implement domestic policies. After all, Congress decides on legislation and budgets. In the realm of foreign policy, a president has more authority of his own. For example, he can launch diplomatic initiatives, conduct negotiations, and, as commander-in-chief, make military decisions. Even as his domestic political leeway shrinks, he thus retains influence on the international stage.
Bush as an example
George W. Bush used his final year in office to adjust various foreign policy issues. For example, in the final months of his presidency, several U.S. drone strikes took place in Pakistan. According to Pakistani intelligence officials, attacks in November 2008 killed, among others, Al-Qaeda leader Abdullah Azzam al-Saudi and British Al-Qaeda suspect Rashid Rauf.
Presidents want to secure their legacy
Bush was not the first president to seek to exert influence in the final phase of his presidency. In 1801, John Adams hastily appointed a series of federal judges, the so-called “midnight judges.” In December 1980, Jimmy Carter signed the Superfund Act and the Alaska Lands Act, thereby enshrining important environmental protections in law for the future. During the final months of his presidency, Dwight Eisenhower’s administration developed the plans for the Bay of Pigs invasion in Cuba. The invasion ultimately took place in April 1961, under his successor, John F. Kennedy.
These examples show that presidents also try to shape their political legacy toward the end of their terms.
Trump loses ground domestically
With his domestic leeway reduced, Trump can focus more of his attention on foreign policy issues. His previous actions, such as withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Iran and the subsequent “maximum pressure” campaign, show that he is willing to revise existing international agreements and employ economic and diplomatic leverage.
It is uncertain what steps he will take in the coming years. However, his previous decisions do provide insight into the tools at his disposal.
What does this mean for Europe?
For Europe, a president who is losing his domestic leeway can present both opportunities and risks. He may make decisions that affect transatlantic relations. Consider the following scenarios.
One scenario is a sudden trade deal. Under time pressure, Trump may try to force a bilateral agreement with the EU. He has repeatedly demonstrated how he uses trade policy to pressure other countries into making concessions. In April 2025, he announced import tariffs on virtually all of the U.S.’s trading partners. He then gave countries a 90-day deadline to conclude a trade agreement, under threat of higher tariffs. This led to a series of separate negotiations. In addition to the European Union, Japan and the United Kingdom, among others, concluded trade agreements with Washington. The agreements included not only tariff reductions but also commitments regarding investment, energy, and market access.
According to Creon Butler of the Chatham House think tank, Trump is using access to the U.S. market to extract economic, financial, and political concessions from trading partners. The report also warns that countries cannot automatically assume that existing trade agreements will remain in effect.
A second scenario concerns NATO and European defense. Trump may announce a new NATO strategy or a bilateral defense agreement in the coming years. Europe must therefore prepare for unexpected changes in the transatlantic security architecture. This scenario is not far-fetched. During his second term, Trump repeatedly called into question U.S. security guarantees to Europe. He linked U.S. commitment within NATO to higher defense spending by allies, threatened to withdraw from the alliance, and announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Germany in 2026. In addition, the Pentagon is working on a review of the U.S. military presence in Europe.
It is uncertain whether these scenarios will become reality. But these developments show that Europe must not only take into account domestic political dynamics in Washington. Even a president who is losing influence at home can still make far-reaching decisions on the world stage. Europe will have to anticipate this.